Weekly Crop Commentary - 10/25/2024

Wes Bahan
Vice President, Grain Division

Good afternoon. Here we are at the end of yet another week and month. We are on the downhill side of the harvest season. The soybeans in most of our areas were not very good. I would suspect that our bean yields are off at least 25% of average. The corn seemed to be better, but yields were all over the place. Corn yields will be down 10 to 15% from average. The corn quality has been very good with no toxins to report and the drier grain means there is a lot less FM to contend with. Basis levels for both corn and beans to end the week are working higher. With harvest drawing to a close, the bin doors are getting locked up. What will it take to open the doors back up? Export sales continue to be rather impressive, river levels continue to be low, and there are no real rains in the forecast to change that. Crush margins for both beans and corn are fantastic so something will have to change. Do we have a futures market rally in the future? Do we continue to see basis strengthen? Is it possible that we could see both? I wouldn't rule that out, but I don’t know the longevity of either. We do have to remember that the west did have big yields and the grain will come to the market at some point. Hopefully, the weather holds out so that everyone can enjoy the trick-or-treat festivities this year. Thanks and have a great weekend.

Lou Baughman
Grain Merchandiser, Kenton (Region 1)

At the Kenton elevator this morning we received .3" of rain. It was enough to settle the dust, but we are still dry in this area. It has been a strange harvest, there are still guys with a lot of corn out but with the price, the yields, and the cooperative weather they are dragging their feet to let it dry in the field.

Next week is the first notice day for November bean futures. If you have any unpriced bean contracts under November, they will need to be priced or rolled. Have a safe weekend.

Steve Bricher
Grain Operations Manager, Urbana (Region 3)

We can see the end of harvest here in Champaign County. We have a few soybeans left to harvest and are likely down to the last 20 percent of corn. I have not looked back through my old records, but this has to be the driest crop we have seen in years. The grain dryers at the elevator and on the farm have not run much. This is a 180 degree shift from last year when everything had to go through a dryer.

We have had a good week in the corn and soybean markets and have moved back towards recent highs. The farmer is a reluctant seller at this point as his bins are full and he is moving grain to town and getting it sold for the most part. I like selling bin corn at the 4.00 level and above at this point. It is going to be hard to push this market much above late last spring highs as we are looking at a 1.9 to 2.0 billion bushel carryover.

Something that has not received much attention was that the BRICS countries met this week in Russia. Nothing major came out of the meeting, but they are trying to make the Yuan the currency of choice for world trade instead of the US dollar. This will become a battle over the next decade between east and west, just something to pay attention to.

South America is starting to plant, and rain is in the forecast. The size of the crop down there will go a long way to determining our prices over the next 9 months.

Lisa Warne
Grain Merchandiser, Marysville (Region 4)

Here we are at the last Friday in October already and the Marysville area is on the downswing of harvest. Hard to fathom how different it is from last year. There are still some double-crop soybeans and the last of the corn to go, but the end is in sight. I’ve seen a lot of fieldwork getting accomplished as well. We had some rain move through half the area this morning, which will slow down work today.

The market had a decent rally this week, bouncing off last week’s lows. We’re seeing some profit-taking to end the week. Local basis is starting to show some strength. Last week, our soybean basis improved a nickel, and this week corn improved a nickel. Export sales have helped support the market this week. Total corn export sales are up 34% from last year and are the third best of the last ten years, behind 2020 and 2021. Unfortunately, soybeans export sales totals are 6% behind the pace needed to meet USDA’s expectations, but the last couple weeks of sales have helped close some of the gap.

As you’re wrapping up harvest and calculating your average yields, put a pencil to your break-even costs so you can set goals on marketing your stored bushels. With those numbers in mind, let’s discuss target offers and contracting options to meet your goals. Have a great weekend!

Ralph Wince
Grain Merchandiser, Canfield (Region 5)

Good afternoon, I'm not sure of the last time we had a harvest season as nice as this year has been. Here in NE Ohio bean harvest on 1st crop beans is nearing completion. I would put us around 95% done. Corn harvest is moving along as well, I would say we are around 35-40% harvested on corn.

Markets continue to chop sideways here as harvest continues to move forward. It feels like we could see the corn market make some improvement once we get past the pressure of harvest. That does not mean that I am bullish on the corn market. However, with our exports of corn looking good and the later start of soybean planting in South America which could also make their double crop corn be planted later than normal, we could see an uptick later in the marketing year.

Soybeans is a different story, as of today South America continues to see good rains and even though the crop was planted later there is still enough time for the crop to do well as long as the rains continue. If that’s the case, it’s hard to think that the U.S. carryout does not stay ample enough. We need for South America to have a weather problem.

As always, have those open target orders in with us for when the market does rally so that we have a chance to hit the price you are hoping to get. This allows us to discuss what things are looking like and come up with that next plan. Have a great weekend.